The Rule of Law in the Real World
Paul Gowder
June 8, 2016
Concept
Genesis
Measurement
Normative Orientation
Liberal Democracy and Individual Liberty
Governance Orientation
Development, Anticorruption, Capacity-Building, Property
Problems
Egalitarian Orientation
Genesis
And why all this matters.
Sir Edward Coke, 1628If Freemen of England might be imprisoned at the will and pleasure of the king, or his commandment, then were they in worse case than bond-men or villains[.]
Demosthenes, 4th Century, B.C.And what is the strength of the laws? If one of you is wronged and cries aloud, will the laws run up and be at his side to assist him? No; they are only written texts and incapable of such action. Wherein then resides their power? In yourselves, if only you support them and make them all-powerful to help him who needs them. So the laws are strong through you and you through the laws.
Measurement
Proof of concept theory-based index: ~90 WJP items, ~90 countries, 2012 data
| RoL | GDP | Demo. | Lib. | Property | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RoL | 1.000000 | 0.871797 | 0.590591 | 0.891206 | 0.889864 |
| GDP | 0.871797 | 1.000000 | 0.499732 | 0.833674 | 0.834366 |
| Demo. | 0.590591 | 0.499732 | 1.000000 | 0.777183 | 0.510440 |
| Lib. | 0.891206 | 0.833674 | 0.777183 | 1.000000 | 0.803828 |
| Property | 0.889864 | 0.834366 | 0.510440 | 0.803828 | 1.000000 |
Rule of Law vs Log GDP
Rule of Law vs Personal Autonomy
Rule of Law vs Property Rights
Rule of Law vs Electoral Process
| RLRW | WJP | FH | WB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RLRW | 1.000000 | 0.976609 | 0.875058 | 0.941708 |
| WJP | 0.976609 | 1.000000 | 0.851513 | 0.967053 |
| FH | 0.875058 | 0.851513 | 1.000000 | 0.858182 |
| WB | 0.941708 | 0.967053 | 0.858182 | 1.000000 |
RLRW vs First Principal Component of WJP
| 2015 WJP PCA | 2015 WJP Overall | BTI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 WJP PCA | 1.000000 | 0.998781 | 0.693348 |
| 2015 WJP Overall | 0.998781 | 1.000000 | 0.705156 |
| BTI | 0.693348 | 0.705156 | 1.000000 |
WJP vs BTI
Some Striking Differences
| Country | WJP | BTI | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 2.953962 | 0.138184 | 2.815778 |
| United Arab Emirates | 1.647602 | -0.765280 | 2.412882 |
| China | -0.328890 | -1.618552 | 1.289662 |
| Republic of Korea | 2.676028 | 1.392996 | 1.283032 |
| Bolivia | -1.037110 | 0.238569 | 1.275679 |
| India | -0.109861 | 0.891071 | 1.000932 |
| Brazil | 0.177566 | 1.142033 | 0.964467 |
Conclusions
- Equality as justification and basis for development
- Theoretically grounded rule of law measures work at least as well as existing leaders, better than others. (But really, trust the WJP)
The Rule of Law in the Real World
https://rulelaw.net
